A state-level analysis of the 2020 and 2024 U.S. presidential elections reveals a distinct correlation between the Democratic popular vote share and average electricity prices in corresponding states.

The data indicates that as the cost of powering homes and businesses rose, the incumbent party’s vote share in that state also increased.

On the other hand, an inverse correlation was observed for nation-wide data; between 2020 and 2024, the Democratic candidate’s share of the popular vote declined by approximately 2.99 percentage points (from 51.31% to 48.32%).

During this same period, the national average price of electricity for all sectors rose by approximately 22%, from 10.59 cents/kWh in 2020 to a projected 12.94 cents/kWh in 2024.

Metric	2020 Value	2024 Value	Change
Democratic Popular Vote Share	51.31% (Joe Biden)	48.32% (Kamala Harris)	-2.99 pp
Avg Electricity Price (All Sectors)	10.59 cents/kWh	12.94 cents/kWh	+22%
Avg Residential Price	13.01 cents/kWh	16.48 cents/kWh	+27%

The 2024 election occurred in a challenging macroeconomic environment.

While electricity prices surged, they were part of a broader inflationary narrative.

Exit polls showed widespread voter concern, with three-quarters of voters reporting hardship due to inflation.

Sector-Specific Price Trends ($/kWh)

Retail electricity prices have risen consistently across all sectors, but the residential sector has seen the most dramatic escalation.

Year	All Sectors	Residential	Commercial	Industrial
2016	10.27	12.55	10.43	6.76
2019	10.54	13.01	10.68	6.81
2020	10.59	13.15	10.59	6.67
2023	12.68	16.00	12.59	8.04
2024 (Proj)	12.94	16.48	12.75	8.13
2025 (Proj)	13.51	17.16	13.33	8.51

Residential prices increased by approximately 3.5 cents/kWh between 2019 and 2024, representing a 27% nominal increase.

Primary Cost Drivers

1. Natural Gas Volatility: Fluctuations in fuel costs, particularly natural gas, were a primary driver. The generation-related portion of retail prices typically lags changes in wholesale spot prices. For example, in Florida, natural gas price increases added approximately 2 cents/kWh to residential prices between 2020 and 2023.
2. Utility Capital Expenditures (Capex): Utilities invested heavily in modernizing the grid, with spending on distribution networks often exceeding generation and transmission. These costs are recovered through rates approved by state Public Utility Commissions (PUCs), directly raising the delivery portion of bills.
3. Transmission & Distribution (T&D): Investments to harden the grid against extreme weather and integrate distributed resources pushed up delivery charges. Revenue per kWh increased across 44 states in late 2025, reflecting these systemic cost pressures.
4. Extreme Weather: Events like Winter Storm Uri and wildfires in the West necessitated costly repairs and mitigation strategies. In California, wildfire mitigation is a significant component of the high retail rates.

2024 Residential Price Extremes

The Pacific region and the Northeast face the highest absolute costs, while the Midwest and South remain relatively affordable.

State	Region	2024 Price (cents/kWh)	Context
Hawaii	Pacific	36.11	Highest in nation; isolated grid
California	Pacific	27.85	Wildfire mitigation, high gas costs
Connecticut	New England	25.52	Regional transmission constraints
Louisiana	South	8.71	Low cost; proximity to fuel sources
North Dakota	Midwest	7.69	Lowest in nation

Data Sources

The following authoritative sources have been identified to construct the necessary dataset for this analysis.

Data Category	Source	Specifics
Electricity Prices	EIA.gov	Electric Power Monthly, Electric Sales, Revenue, and Average Price (Form EIA-861)
Election Results	FEC / MIT Lab	Certified state-level popular vote totals (2020, 2024)
Inflation/Labor	BLS	CPI-U, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
Demographics	Census Bureau	American Community Survey (ACS) for income, education
Energy Burden	DOE / LEAD Tool	Low-income vs. non-low-income burden metrics